Mayor Doherty's second term ends in 2009, and he has already stated that he intends to run for election. What are your thoughts on his chances and on how could oppose him?
Here are my two and a half cents:
Doherty's Chances I'd say there is a better than 70% chance he will be re-elected, if only due to a lack of credible opposition.
On the plus side - ...Scranton has great parks ...Our downtown has improved ...He was spot on in requiring the police chielf and fire chief to not be members of the union (this may seem like a minor issue, but if you think about it, it's crucial to running these departments)
On the negative side - ...He man doesn't have a good eye for talent (when it comes to picking staff...I am sure Sara Hailstone is a very nice lady, but she was grossly unqualified for the OCED position). ...He has failed to develop an effective working relationship with the police and fire unions. ...He hasn't done nearly enough to make city government more efficient; in fact, they may be less efficient in some respects
The Potential Opposition I'm no political insider, so take the following with that grain of salt noted.
Janet Evans - Not a showball's chance in hell. She does well running in multi-winner crowded fields (i.e., council, school board), but put her one-on-one and her negatives are simply too much. In her mind I think she feels she is playing the role of "opposition leader" on city council; in the minds of many who watch her, she comes across as whiney and pandering. Contrary to what she may believe, Channel 61 has not helped her at all. She also had a tendency towards Monday morning quarterbacking and flip-flopping (being for then against the smoking ban). In a one on one contest, Doherty beats her better than he beat DiBileo in '05. In a primary, Evans will have to do something she doesn't do well (respond to attacks) and she'll have to talk about what she is for...not just against (which is basically just running Anti-Doherty).
Gary DiBileo - Nice guy and a very good professional insurance agent...but the things that make him professionally successful...such as being able to bend to customer needs...make him ineffective as a leader. He comes across as being "wishy-washy" and timid when he speaks. For the life of me I don't know how he'd ever be able to handle union negotiations without giving away the store. Doherty can beat him easily. I don't see him getting harmed nearly as much in a primary as Evans hereself will, mainly because the biggest knock against Gary is that he's too much of a "nice guy"; Evans, on the other hand, will be subject to all manner of knocks.
Tom Gilbride - Friends, neighbors and Scranton political aficionados are the only one's know know about this guy. "Tom Gilbride" is the Scranton equilvalent of "John Smith"...some folks will hear that name and think "didn't he used to be the Prison Warden"? I am sure that Mr Gilbride is a nice guy, but he has zero chance.
-- Edited by Agamemnon at 08:28, 2008-07-01
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"Hope at least gives you the option of living" - Harry Nilsson
1. If there are two or more primary opponents, Mayor Doherty's re-election percentage spikes to near 100%.
2. One-on-one races: 55% over DiBileo, a near tie with Evans or Gilbride, and a defeat by a well-funded surprise candidate. People are ready for a new name. If a professional, well-funded (and Irish) candidate pops up unexpectedly, the mayor is in deep trouble. It's just that kind of mood.
3. His greatest flaw is his inability to deal openly with the public. The oncoming budgetary train wreck (and unmanageable debt load) is another. His best asset is that the downtown is markedly improved over that during the previous administration, and there has been a recovery in property values. He also seems more professional than most politicians in the city.
Unfortunately, I think Doherty's chances for re-election are good. Even though I initially thought Doherty was doing a good job, I think the results are showing that we need new blood, although I think Janet Evans would be a poor choice. DiBileo, I thought would be a good choice, as he is a nice guy and I believe cares about the city and would do what is best for the regular working people. But people are easily swayed by Electric City lights, new things at Nay Aug, and the like. The majority of voters do not really use their heads and examine the issues...they vote from newspaper photos and TV sound bites. Smoke and mirrors and propaganda has elected many a politician in this country, for another example, see George W. Bush.
I think another advantage Mayor Doherty will have is that the council crazies through their blind hatred will throw all their support toward the other candidate. Their typical pre-school antics will send more support toward Chris Doherty because voting for the other candidate is a vote for the Franus's and Patilla loonies.
I think another advantage Mayor Doherty will have is that the council crazies through their blind hatred will throw all their support toward the other candidate. Their typical pre-school antics will send more support toward Chris Doherty because voting for the other candidate is a vote for the Franus's and Patilla loonies.
Let's try and keep the discourse here on topic and avoid name calling ("crazies" , "loonies"). There are other boards for that...Thanks for understanding.
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"Hope at least gives you the option of living" - Harry Nilsson
I agree that it's a close race with DiBileo, but I disagree about an Evans race being close at all. Evans has far more negatives than many realize (for example, it would be hard for her to rail against "backroom deals" when it could be argued that's how she got her teaching job), and outside of a strong core of supporters, she'd have a tough time coming close to Doherty to a general population that sees her lecturing on weekly Council broadcasts. Besides, running as a Democrat, she would have to first survive (what you brilliantly referred once to as) the "circular firing squad" with DiBileo in the primary.
The best chance against Doherty? A well spoken, business-oriented Republican...someone who is polished and who can raise money. I don't necessarily buy the Irish thing, but until that generation finally dies off, I'll give it to you as a factor. Personally, I don't think that people in the 20-30-40's age bracket aren't married to the whole ethnic thing the way some older voters might be.
Personally I like Chris Doherty. But I do worry that we may be getting into "Mayor for Life" territory (see Sharpe James/Newark, Stephen Reed/Harrisburg), which is never a good thing. The city can always benefit from new ideas.
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"Hope at least gives you the option of living" - Harry Nilsson
Unfortunately, I think Doherty's chances for re-election are good. Even though I initially thought Doherty was doing a good job, I think the results are showing that we need new blood, although I think Janet Evans would be a poor choice. DiBileo, I thought would be a good choice, as he is a nice guy and I believe cares about the city and would do what is best for the regular working people. But people are easily swayed by Electric City lights, new things at Nay Aug, and the like. The majority of voters do not really use their heads and examine the issues...they vote from newspaper photos and TV sound bites. Smoke and mirrors and propaganda has elected many a politician in this country, for another example, see George W. Bush.
-- Edited by Stooge at 14:09, 2008-07-01
I'm not trying to say anything bad about Gary DiBileo ... I do however strongly believe that he is the type of candidate that says what he needs to say to individuals. I have witnessed him talking to one person and agreeing with them and then turn around and totally contradict himself when talking to the next person. So it's kind of like he will tell you what you want to hear in order to gain your vote.
I agree that he is a hell of a nice guy ... maybe he needs to toughen up and take a stand and tell people where he stands on an issue rather than telling them what he thinks they want to hear. But this is just my opinion.
If Janet and Gary both run they will cancel each other out as they draw their votes from the same pool of voters.
I'm looking for a candidate that is not going to make a lot of promises that he/she can't keep ... just the promise to do the best job that he/she can do ... who is that candidate ... I don't know yet ... So far I have to say with the field of candidates who have been named ... I throw my support to Mayor Doherty. Will someon appear out of the woodwork ... who knows ... but for now I have to say my person of choice is Mayor Doherty.
For someone who did not run a credible campaign, Gary DiBileo did come reasonably close to beating Doherty...closer, I think, than Connor did during Doherty's first mayoral campaign (I'll have to check my copy of the Wenzel book for the figures). Regardless, I think it's all but certain that Gary will run again; the real question mark is Janet Evans, who likes hint at it, but so far hasn't committed one way or another.
Any chance she (Evans) will jump ship and go the Connors "Republican In Name Only" route? I can't believe that she's all that popular with some of the more prominent Democrats in the region; for example, some of her "friends" have said/written some fairly vile things about Bob Mellow...mind you, I'm no fan of Mellow (or his brother), but criticizing what he does in office is one thing, rumor mongering about his personal life is another. I think this is her best chance....and even with that I say she'll do worse against Doherty than DiBileo did. Think about it...on an issue by issue basis...
The Evans Claim - "Doherty has been fiscally irresponsible" The Doherty Response - "Evans claims to be able to balance the budget, increase the number of police/firemen, give them all raises, pave more roads, cut taxes and do it by eliminating management positions and raises. The numbers don't and can't ever add up."
The Evans Claim - "Doherty is awash in special deals for campaign contributors, and other assorted quid-pro-quo arrangements." The Doherty Response (via surrogate) - "Evans is awash in special deals for herself and at least one member of her family."
The Evans Claim - "Doherty has failed to effective lead public safety employees". The Doherty Response - "Evans will be beholden to city union bosses for election support and therefore will give away the store as payment for their support."
The Evans Claim - "The Doherty Debt" The Doherty Response - "Investing in the future cost money"
The Evans Claim - "All Doherty has to show for 8 years in office is a tree house at Nay Aug." The Doherty Response - "Name one piece of meaningful legislation that Janet Evans has brought up which has become law; all she can do is complain about (me)...leaders don't complain, they lead."
The Evans Claim (in private) - "Doherty is a Green Ridge elitist." The Doherty Response (in private) - "Evans' supporters are mostly just malcontents and union bosses who are mad that they no longer run the city."
-- Edited by Agamemnon at 17:01, 2008-07-19
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"Hope at least gives you the option of living" - Harry Nilsson
Per Glenn Cashuric ::: ... If a professional, well-funded (and Irish) candidate pops up unexpectedly ... :::
You forgot to say "thick skinned", or the other end of the spectrum "pure as the driven snow". It's highly unlikely some born-and-bred Scrantonian named Paddy McSmith, Stashu Smithski, Pietro Smithelli or Miguel Smithoza will be throwing his name into the Scranton political arena and put themselves (and possibly everyone they know) through the scrutiny we all know will take place.
Whoever does jump head first into Scranton politics in this day and age has to be someone with a.) a quick mind and a thick hide, who can look certain people dead in the eye and say what needs to be said and do what needs to be done for the betterment of our City, or b.) a quick mind and has nothing to hide, who can look certain people dead in the eye and say what needs to be said and do what needs to be done for the betterment of our City. That person, I'll vote for. Is he or she out there? I know it's not DiBileo or Evans. Only time will tell.
Thursday...I loved the name "Paddy McSmith, Stashu Smithski, Pietro Smithelli or Miguel Smithoza" but I think you're ignoring the city's Slovak and Lithuanian populations.
Anyway, I agree that whomever runs will need to be both smart and thick-skinned. What they won't be is pefect though, and it seems that there are some elements in the city where perfection is definitely the enemy of good. Someone with nearly perfect appeal to the city's unionized employees will definitely alienate taxpayers who know that salary and benefit costs make up the majority of the city's budget. Maybe that's why I'll probably vote for Chris Doherty again...he's not perfect, but he is good...and until and unless someone better comes along, he's got my vote.
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"Hope at least gives you the option of living" - Harry Nilsson
I do not think a third term is a good idea either for the mayor and his political future or the city budget. I wish he would, for lack of a better word, punt. If Rick Santorum had punted, he could very well have been the Republican nominee for president.
